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Saturday, February 27, 2010


Who's going to win the big awards? I have no idea, of course, but I'll hazard some guesses anyway, based on how watching the Oscars for decades has informed my opinions.

Best Supporting Actor:
*Matt Damon-'Invictus'
Woody Harrelson-'The Messenger'
Christopher Plummer-'The Last Station'
Stanley Tucci-'The Lovely Bones'
Christoph Waltz -'Inglorious Basterds'
Who will win: Waltz. There's always someone who the general public has never heard of who wins one of the supporting nods. Don't think it'll be Plummer, whose movie got only a so-so 68% positive in Rotten Tomatoes; on the other hand, he's old (80), and the Academy likes old, plus it's his first nomination. Could be Tucci, but I think that some of those Academy voters just aren't going to watch his performance because of the subject matter.
Who I want to win: Tucci, who's just an actor who shows great range.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz-'Nine'
*Vera Farmiga-'Up in the Air'
Maggie Gyllenhaal-'Crazy Heart'
*Anna Kendrick-'Up in the Air'
Who will win: Mo'nique. Academy loves to reward those who play against type. Bonus that she's a minority, and Cruz got one recently.
Who I want to win: Farmiga, who lives in Ulster County, NY where I lived for a time. So I'm a homer; so what?

Best Animated Feature Film
'Fantastic Mr. Fox'
*'The Princess and the Frog'
'The Secret of Kells'
What will win: Up. I mean it was a nominee for Best Picture.
What I want to win: The Princess & the Frog. While I LOVED the wordless beginning of Up more than I could have imagined, I liked the Disney flick more throughout.

Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal 'The Hurt Locker'
Quentin Tarantino 'Inglourious Basterds'
Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman 'The Messenger'
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen 'A Serious Man'
*Peter Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy 'Up'
Who will win: Boal. I'm expecting a Hurt Locker avalanche.
Who I want to win: Boal, though it wouldn't bother me if the Coens ot Tarantino got it.

Best Adapted Screenplay
*Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell 'District 9'
*Nick Hornby 'An Education'
Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche 'In the Loop'
Geoffrey Fletcher 'Precious'
*Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner 'Up in the Air'
Who will win: Reitman/Turner. This is Reitman's consolation prize for losing for Best Picture and Best Director, an Oscar tradition.
Who I want to win: Reitman/Turner.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges 'Crazy Heart'
*George Clooney 'Up in the Air'
*Colin Firth 'A Single Man'
*Morgan Freeman'Invictus'
*Jeremy Renner 'The Hurt Locker'
Who will win: Jeff Bridges, who's been nominated four times without a win, and won the Golden Globe.
Who I want to win: Bridges or Clooney

Best Actress
*Sandra Bullock 'The Blind Side'
*Helen Mirren 'The Last Station'
*Carey Mulligan 'An Education'
Gabourey Sidibe 'Precious'
* Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia as Julia Child
Who will win: Streep. The pundits are making this a contest between Streep and Bullock. Streep, whose been nominated 16 times, and won twice (but not since 1982!) has been beaten by perceived stronger performances. The competition this year includes two novices (Mulligan, Sidibe), Mirren's appearance in a so-so film, and a certain backlash against Bullock's film. If not this year for Meryl, when?
Who I want to win: STREEP

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow 'The Hurt Locker'
James Cameron 'Avatar'
Lee Daniels 'Precious'
*Jason Reitman 'Up in the Air'
Quentin Tarantino 'Inglourious Basterds'
Who will win: Bigelow. I mean, a well-received film, directed by a woman, and not on what's considered a "women's film". Perhaps her biggest booster is one of her competitors, her ex-husband Cameron.
Who I want to win: Bigelow.

Best Picture
*'The Blind Side'
*'District 9'
*'An Education'
'The Hurt Locker'
'Inglourious Basterds'
'A Serious Man'
*'Up in the Air'
What will win: The Hurt Locker. In a five-movie race under the "first-to-the-post" rules, this is Avatar's, almost for certain. But I keep hearing that while Avatar is a technological achievement, its story's weak.
What I want to win: Up In The Air, which I think in the future will be seen as emblematic of its time.

So what are your picks, for who WILL win, and who you WANT to win?
Links to your blogpost describing same would be fine.



Greg said...

Why do you want Tucci to win? I mean, you give a reason for wanting Farmiga to win, but just saying Tucci is a good actor doesn't cut it! Actually, I just wonder because I haven't seen The Lovely Bones but I have seen Inglourious Basterds, and Waltz just kills in it, so I can't imagine Tucci is that much better than he is.

Nik said...

I'd love to see Bigelow win best director, Hurt Locker was astounding and Cameron has his Oscar. I just watched "Julie and Julia" last night and think it'd be great for Streep to win too, I think she deserves another win and boy, she was great fun in that.

What I *really* want is for "Fantastic Mr. Fox" to win best animated but "Up" probably will -- I quite liked "Up" but "Fox" was easily in my top 3 for 2009, great great movie.

Roger Owen Green said...

Greg- Re; Tucci: I suppose it has to with the fact that he just didn't want to do the role at all, according to himself on CBS Sunday Morning.