Oscar

We talk movies a lot in our office. One person was wondering whether a non-American was likely to win Oscars. As we pursued the question further, it became clear that "non-American" has really come to mean having English as their native language. People from the UK, Australia, New Zealand and especially Canada (unless they are French-Canadians) are considered "Americans" by the movie-going public, we suggested. This year's nominees:

Performance by an actor in a leading role
George Clooney in “Michael Clayton” - US
Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood” - England
Johnny Depp in “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” - US
Tommy Lee Jones in “In the Valley of Elah” - US
Viggo Mortensen in “Eastern Promises” - US
The English guy will win.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Casey Affleck in “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” - US
Javier Bardem in “No Country for Old Men” - Spain
Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Charlie Wilson’s War” - US
Hal Holbrook in “Into the Wild” - US
Tom Wilkinson in “Michael Clayton” - England
This is even more interesting; the guy who was born in the Canary Islands will win.

Performance by an actress in a leading role
Cate Blanchett in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” - Australia
Julie Christie in “Away from Her” - England (born in India)
Marion Cotillard in “La Vie en Rose” - France
Laura Linney in “The Savages” - US
Ellen Page in “Juno” - Canada
Only one American in the field, and she's unlikely to win; the Englishwoman or the Frenchwoman.

Cate Blanchett in “I’m Not There” - Australia
Ruby Dee in “American Gangster” - US
Saoirse Ronan in “Atonement” - US
Amy Ryan in “Gone Baby Gone” - US
Tilda Swinton in “Michael Clayton” - England
Could be the only American to win an acting Oscar tonight, unless the Australian takes it and shuts out the US completely. (Entertainment Weekly suggests it'll be the Englishwoman.)

Let's look at the awards for the previous 7 years, just the winners:

2001 (74th)
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE* Denzel Washington -- Training Day - US
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE* Jim Broadbent -- Iris - England
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE* Halle Berry -- Monster's Ball - US
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE* Jennifer Connelly -- A Beautiful Mind - US

2002 (75th)
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE* Adrien Brody -- The Pianist - US
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE* Chris Cooper -- Adaptation - US
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE* Nicole Kidman -- The Hours - Australia (born in Hawaii)
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE* Catherine Zeta-Jones -- Chicago - Wales

2003 (76th)
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE* Sean Penn -- Mystic River - US
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE* Tim Robbins -- Mystic River - US
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE* Charlize Theron -- Monster - South Africa
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE* Renée Zellweger -- Cold Mountain - US

2004 (77th)
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE* Jamie Foxx -- Ray - US
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE* Morgan Freeman -- Million Dollar Baby - US
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE* Hilary Swank -- Million Dollar Baby - US
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE* Cate Blanchett -- The Aviator - Australia

2005 (78th)
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE* Philip Seymour Hoffman -- Capote - US
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE* George Clooney -- Syriana - US
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE* Reese Witherspoon -- Walk the Line - US
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE* Rachel Weisz -- The Constant Gardener - England

2006 (79th)
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE* Forest Whitaker -- The Last King of Scotland - US
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE* Alan Arkin -- Little Miss Sunshine - US
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE* Helen Mirren -- The Queen - England
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE* Jennifer Hudson -- Dreamgirls - US

Every year, a non-American has won, albeit one whose native language was likely English.
***
I'm not going to change my picks from three weeks ago, though, in fact, I picked Julie Christie rather than Marion Cotillard in a contest. I would not be shocked, though, if the heavyweight vote splits between No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood, movies filmed so close to each other that I read in Entertainment Weekly that an oil rig fire filmed for Blood interfered with a shot for No Country. This would allow Juno, the movie that, at midweek, had twice the box office of No Country, its nearest Oscar competitor, to win. Not saying it'll happen; I'm just saying that it wouldn't be the upset that Atonement or Michael Clayton winning would be.

And since the Academy will have all the glitz, in honor of my friend Uthaclena's 55th birthday, I'll be watching. Probably not tonight, though; that's what timeshifting's all about. I don't watch the Oscars to see who wins; I watch them to see HOW they win.

ROG